The Institute of Leadership & Management

Introduction

Over the past decade or even just the last five years, managers have worked in an almost constant state of change. We have witnessed the continued march of globalisation and rapid pace of technological development. Virtual teams made up of globally dispersed members now communicate in real time via multiple channels, sharing data, information and ideas via the cloud. Major social and demographic changes have been taking place with the Baby Boomers starting to relinquish power to the Millennials, the oldest of which are now in their 30s. Meanwhile, the continued political and economic power continues to shift to East Asia. As we progress through 2014, we hope to fully emerge from the shadows of the 2008 financial crisis but there is still a degree of economic uncertainty ahead.

Set against this backdrop, we wanted to find out what managers will need to know, do and be, if they are to be successful in five years’ time. What challenges will they face and what should be their priorities?

Through our online community members and a survey of more than a 1,000 managers, it is evident that the 2020 manager will need to be agile and adaptive but also that the fundamentals of good leadership and management will matter more than ever. The key trends identified by the research are already coming into play but will further strengthen in the years ahead. It should be noted that flexible working, identified as one of the key trends, has a correlation with some of the other trends highlighted. It is a driver for the increasing importance placed on relationship-building and one of the reasons why managers will face more complex challenges over the coming years when it comes to performing core management functions.

The research also demonstrates that these key changes are not playing out equally. Managers from large organisations and those with shareholders have witnessed a greater degree of change over the last five years and anticipate even more over the next five compared to managers elsewhere.

A number of trends are also emerging that may not be dominant but will be relevant for an increasing number of managers. For example, while many managers remain anchored to the security of stable employment, a growing proportion are sacrificing this to embrace wider development opportunities that will increase their own employability and aid career progression. Greater individual emphasis on employability is one of the recommendations by the UKCES on the future of work in 2030 (P. XXIV, UKCES, 2014.1

Organisations and individual managers at all levels must take notice of these future trends and explicitly acknowledge how the world will have profoundly changed by the time we reach 2020. They should consider carefully how they can improve both their agility and their mastery of the basics of good leadership and management to ensure they are equipped to face the challenges ahead. If the next half-decade is anything like the last one, it will be impossible to lead and manage teams effectively without both the right skillset and mindset.

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Ella Phelps Manager

Key findings

Flexible workforce gathers momentum

The overall trend is towards greater flexible working in the UK. Our research survey found that the vast majority 94% of UK organisations offer some form of flexible working and it is standard practice within half of these organisations (ILM, 2013. It is not, however, increasing uniformly across UK workforces and is far more prevalent in larger organisations.

Unsurprisingly, the growing trend is driven by improvements in IT and data transfer speeds (wired, wi-fi and 3G, 4G). It isn’t only about technology. Organisations are increasingly recognising the benefits of working more flexibly for both consumers and their staff. Flexible working provides an additional and highly effective incentive to attract and retain talented employees. It will be expected by the Millennials who are becoming an increasing part of the workforce but flexible working is popular among older workers too.2 By giving individuals greater control over their working day, they also feel more empowered and this can lead to increased engagement and productivity levels. When implemented correctly, flexible working can also reduce office overheads. Half 51%) of the managers surveyed expect flexible working to become the norm within five years and recognised it as a future trend. Similarly, 52% of managers believe their direct reports are working more flexibly than five years ago, while 41% report minimal change. Only 7% said that their direct reports were working less flexibly than five years ago. This may be in response to the tougher labour market conditions and relative job insecurity faced during the last five years, but the general trend is upwards.

Flexible working is more common in large organisations, and those with shareholders and managers in such organisations are significantly more likely to expect their direct reports to be working more flexibly in five years’ time. The research highlights that not all organisations are behaving equitably. Of the 52% of managers reporting increased flexible working, one quarter stated that flexible working had increased but only ‘for the chosen few’. Meanwhile 11% said that flexible working had become the default way of working and a further 16% reported a large increase. The online community of managers surveyed explained flexible working was sometimes offered to retain talent or to benefit the organisation rather than the individual.

Planets by Area

Countries by Area

Emerging trends

The following three trends are emerging and while they may not become dominant, the research suggests they will be followed by an increasing minority.

Employability versus stable employment

The traditional legal and psychological contracts that long existed between employers and employees are changing rapidly. Few buy into the concept of a job for life any more. While this is an unpleasant new reality for some, for others it provides opportunity for career progression and to adjust their work/life balance to best suit their personal circumstances. More than a quarter 26% of managers recognised this as a trend. Given the option between a 12-month, fixedterm contract offering more career development opportunities or a stable, permanent job, offering fewer career development opportunities, just under a third 31% would choose the former to increase their employability. Just over two thirds had definite plans to improve their own employability over the next 12 months with just under a third 29% intending to take a specific leadership or management qualification or training course. Managers in large organisations and in those with shareholders were significantly more likely to prioritise employability over stable employment and have definite plans to improve their own employability

A new model of capitalism

More measured approaches

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Ella Phelps Manager